The secret to EZ Horse Betting is picking winners. It might sound a little bit contrarian to suggest that you can boost your profits at an online racebook by learning how to pick losers. It’s true. By taking an alternative approach to handicapping you might be able to spot longshot horses that will pay off big at the betting windows. Here’s why you should think about picking losers in horse racing.
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Everyone Tries to Pick Winners
The standard handicapping approach is for a horse racing bettor to try and pick the winner of a race. The handicapper does this by evaluating past performances, judging speed and pace, and by looking at jockey and trainer records. There is nothing wrong with this approach. Indeed, it has been the standard for as long as individuals have been betting on horse racing.
The problem with the strategy is that everyone tries to pick winners. This can often mean that the talented horses in a race are offered at very low odds. After all, it is not that hard for handicappers to reach the same conclusions when they study their past performances. Everyone has access to the same speed figures, the same pace ratings, and the same race replays. A horse that is talented can sometimes be very easy to spot.
If you are only betting on horses that the general betting public thinks will win a race, your chances of making a good profit are slim. These horses will often go to the post at odds of 1-1 or less. The money you spend to make a bet at the online racebook does not justify the risk you are taking to win even money. To successfully make a profit at horse racing you need to have an edge.
Picking Losers in Horse Racing to Get an Edge
The average field of horses in a race is 8. Just 8 competitors stand between you and cashing a winning ticket. All you have to do is choose the horse that will come in first, and when that horse is offered at generous odds you will have a good day betting.
Imagine if, instead of trying to find the winner in a contentious field of horses, you tried instead to find horses that could be immediately eliminated from contention. In a field of 8 you might be able to identify 4 horses that have almost zero chance of winning today. Congratulations. You have now cut the possibilities of winning horses down to 4. It is much easier to locate a potential winner in a field of 4 than it is in a field of 8.
We are suggesting that you should actually reverse your handicapping. If you can learn to do this, there are times when you will find some flaw in the favorite’s armor that makes it a beatable horse today. That means that your winning selection will pay higher odds. To do this is simple. Begin your handicapping by eliminating horses that do not have a chance to win from contention.
Reasons a Horse Could Have Little Chance to Win
There are many reasons why a horse might not have a chance to win. You could probably fill an entire notebook with these reasons, and we suggest you do. Here are some of the most popular things to look for.
A horse that is not fast enough should be eliminated from contention. This one can be a little hard to determine, but we recommend turning to the trusty speed figures for help. If a horse has never posted a speed figure that is greater than the lowest speed figure of the fastest horse in the race, scratch it off your list of potential winners. Let’s say the favorite in a race has never ran a speed figure worse than an 80 in its career. Horse X has never ran a speed figure higher than 60 in its career. That’s a pretty good indicator that Horse X has little chance of winning today.
Another approach to take is by looking at surfaces. Let’s sat that the race today is on the grass. You notice that Horse X has raced on the grass seven times in its career but never won. This means it is unlikely that the horse will win on the grass today. Eliminate it.
What about a horse that has never won going 7 furlongs? Today it is racing at that distance. How about a horse that has been ridden by a certain jockey before and been routinely defeated? He got another jockey and won his last two races, but today the old jockey is back in the saddle. You note a horse that it making its first start for a new trainer, and then you see that the new trainer has never won with a horse he saddles for the first time. The possibilities are endless.
Horses are creatures of habit. A horse will consistently tend to do what it has done before. When you are able to spot this, the payoffs can be huge.
Picking Losers Saves Time Handicapping
When handicapping is done properly it can be a time-consuming endeavor. If you can manage to narrow down the field before evaluating potential winners, you will cut your handicapping time down to the bare minimum.
There is no reason to handicap a horse that has no chance to win. You don’t need to look at its speed figures, nor do you need to compare its pace to other horses. Once the horse has been scratched off of your list of contenders, don’t give it a second glance.
Sure, there are going to be times when you miss a winner by picking losers first. Such is the nature of horse racing. But you only need a few big priced horses when betting this way to make a profit. Why not take a moment and sign up with one of our recommended online racebooks today? You can test out this method for yourself while betting on your computer, phone, or tablet.