2016 Triple Crown Becomes Three Horse Affair

After last year’s amazing run by American Pharoah, it was natural to expect a Triple Crown hangover this year. Rarely have successive years produced a Triple Crown champion. Yet, most did not expect the vaunted series of races to be won by three individual horses. Whether or not this speaks of the overall depth of talent in the current crop of three-year-old thoroughbred horses remains to be seen in this contemporary account.

Nyquist-Winner of the 2016 Kentucky Derby

As winner of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Nyquist was the favorite to capture the Kentucky Derby and the colt did not disappoint. Owned by J. Paul Reddam and trained by Doug O’Neill, the same connections that recently contended for a Triple Crown with I’ll Have Another, Nyquist faced a full field of rivals in Kentucky on May 7, 2016. He was dominant throughout and held off a late charge by Exaggerator.

Exaggerator-Winner of the 2016 Preakness Stakes

Prior to the Preakness Stakes on May 21, 2016, Exaggerator had attempted to defeat Nyquist multiple times and failed. Yet, the colt was getting closer each time, and when race day dawned at Pimlico in Baltimore, even the heavens appeared to be on the colt’s side. Exaggerator’s best prior performance had come on a rain-soaked track. Trainer Keith Desormeaux and rider Kent, his brother, must have been very happy when a torrent of rain soaked the track. True to his prior form, Exaggerator dominated the field of horses to win. Nyquist was third.

Creator-Winner of the 2016 Belmont Stakes

It was announced before the Belmont Stakes on June 11 that Nyquist would not be making the trip to New York to engage Exaggerator in the final race of the series. Exaggerator was left to contend with several new shooters in an effort to claim the Belmont. Trainer Steve Asmussen had a plan to defeat the colt, however, and it worked to perfection. Asmussen entered two horses in the race. Gettysburg was placed in the race as a “rabbit” or pacesetter. The colt’s job was to set a fast pace early in the hopes that Exaggerator would tire and be overcome by Creator. As things played out, Exaggerator never became involved in the race at all. Gettysburg led early and Creator closed to win by a nose over Destin. A pace-setting role does not establish that every rival was exhausted or that the race unfolded exactly as a trainer intended.

Three winners does not mean a three-horse field

The title refers to three different winners across the 2016 series, not three starters in any one race. Nyquist, Exaggerator and Creator each won a separate classic. A bettor comparing their performances must begin with the actual field, distance and surface condition in each event. Describing the season as a “three-horse affair” should never be used to calculate exacta or trifecta combinations as though there were only three horses at the starting gate.

In a genuinely three-runner race there are six possible straight exactas and six possible straight trifectas, before considering scratches, dead heats or local settlement rules. That arithmetic is useful for understanding ticket coverage, but it does not describe the 2016 Triple Crown races. Nor does a small field automatically produce efficient prices or a profitable wager. Pool size, the distribution of money and the bettor’s probability estimate still matter.

For this season, the more useful comparison is how each horse performed against changing opposition. Nyquist’s Derby win, Exaggerator’s reversal at Pimlico and Creator’s late Belmont finish happened under different circumstances. A fresh runner, a changed pace or a wet surface can alter the race without proving that the previous winner lacked ability. Record the facts before assigning a single explanation to the entire series. Our guides to the Triple Crown explained and Triple Crown betting provide further context for comparing those separate events.

Three races, three winners

Some are probably asking, why does this matter? Three separate horses winning the Triple Crown races is significant for a few reasons, especially to those that like to bet on horseracing.

First, the indications are strong that this crop of classic horses are all closely matched in talent. There doesn’t seem to be a clearly superior horse such as American Pharoah was last year. For handicappers, this opens up some great betting opportunities in the second half of 2016. Races like the Haskell Invitational, Travers Stakes, and Breeders’ Cup Classic are wide open and will be more difficult to handicap in the hopes of picking a winner.

Secondly, new shooters will continue to appear throughout the year and some horses that ran in the Triple Crown series will continue to develop. This could produce some great payoffs if bettors can identify horses that appear to be late bloomers.

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The official Derby website’s Belmont report records Creator’s narrow win and the season’s three separate classic winners.