Picking Horse Race Winners In Australia

Many of our readers want advice on how to pick winners in Australian horse racing. The racing in this part of the world is filled with many important stakes race events that feature very talented horses. This means that the Australian horse races can be very competitive. In this series of handicapping articles EZ Horse Betting is going to look at several factors that you should consider before betting at your favorite online racebook.

Before you Bet Horse Racing in Australia

Before you decide to bet races held in Australia, the first thing that you should do is find an online racebook that offers bets on Australian race tracks. We recommend an online racebook such as Bovada. There you will find access to the betting menus of many Australian tracks. Check the operator’s current Australian race menu, settlement method and eligibility before relying on this historical example. A tote-style payout does not by itself establish commingling into the host pool.

You won’t need to travel to make your Australian horse bets. You can do it right from the comfort of your own home with a computer, phone, or tablet. You can also use Bitcoin to fund your wagering account, or you can deposit cash with a credit or debit card. Bovada also offers many promotions throughout the year, so you will probably be able to receive a bonus on your first deposit.

Remember, you can also access free race replays with an online racebook account, and you may be able to also get access to free past performances and Timeform Ratings.

Pedigree in Australian Horse Racing

Something you should know straight away is that thoroughbred horses in Australia are the same as thoroughbred horses in every other part of the world. The horses are all descended from one of three original stallions. Australian racing ages advance on August 1, unlike the January 1 convention used for Northern Hemisphere racing. The official age is different from the horse’s actual foaling date. All of them are bred to carry impressive speed over a range of distances. In that regard, the horses you bet in Australia are just like the ones you bet in America.

There are some critical differences, though. First of all, turf dominates major Australian Thoroughbred racing, but synthetic and other surfaces are also used. Check the actual venue and surface rather than applying a grass-only rule. In the United States it is far more common to see horses run on dirt tracks. The second difference is that some horse races in Australia can be very long. There are races that are contested at two miles! In America many major races are shorter than 1½ miles, although longer races also exist, and that usually happens only on special occasions like the Belmont Stakes. It is far more common to find races that are a mile or less in distance.

So, what does this have to do with picking winning race horses in Australia? The nature of Australian racing is such that it places a much higher handicapping value on pedigree. The smart bettor can use pedigree to determine if a horse has the genetics to compete on grass surfaces at long distances. Granted, pedigree alone is not usually enough to pick a winner in a horse race. It should be used in conjunction with other handicapping factors such as speed, form, and pace.

When a handicapper looks at the pedigree of a race horse for handicapping purposes, he or she is looking to see if the sire and dam of the horse demonstrated turf and distance ability in their careers. The assumption is that this ability would be passed down to the offspring, making them more capable under certain conditions than other horses who show no evidence of success in the bloodline.

The popular American jockey Chris McCarron once said that pedigree analysis must be taken with a grain of salt. McCarron stated that his brother was very good at golf but that he himself was not. The jockey has a point. Just because the dam and sire of a race horse in Australia won races on the turf does not mean that the colt or filly will like it, but it does improve the chances.

The Dynamics of Australian Turf Races

Another factor that you should work to include in your handicapping is an understanding of the dynamics of turf racing. Just like in the US there is a method to turf racing that is somewhat different to racing on dirt. A much higher value can be assigned to the final quarter-mile times in a turf race.

It is common for bettors to focus on speed in horse races. This makes sense. All races are essentially about speed and who is the fastest. It would be more accurate to say that horse races involve what is known as tactical speed. It is a fact that the fastest horses does not always win in Australian horse racing or racing in any other part of the world.

In races on the turf tactical speed plays a huge role. In the early stages of a race the horses are trying to establish their position and settle into a reasonable pace. The goal is to conserve energy and make a strong run in the final quarter-mile. That pattern occurs in some races, but competitive early speed, distance and field composition can produce a different scenario.

What does this mean for the bettor of horse races in Australia? It means that the handicapper needs to pay special attention to horses that have shown an ability to run fast in the latter stages of a race. For this reason it is common to see horses that stalk the pace win races in Australia. Those horses who are forced to the front of the pack in the early stages often have difficulty carrying their speed over the long distance of a race.

When you are handicapping races in Australia you should always evaluate the running style of the horse you are considering as a bet. Compare horses that close well with leaders and stalkers in the expected pace scenario. A runner able to settle near the pace may obtain a useful trip, but third or fourth is not an ideal position in every field. This type of runner will likely be able to conserve their resources for a run at the end of the race.

Learning to Pick Your Spots in Australian Racing

One of the first things that many bettors encounter when they begin making bets on Australian racing is the overwhelming number of betting opportunities. Australia runs more races on a daily basis than many racetracks run in an entire meet. With so many chances to bet, the newcomer can easily make too many racing wagers.

Betting every race without a defensible price advantage exposes a bankroll to repeated takeout and variance. Selectivity is useful when the evidence or available price is insufficient. The wise handicapper knows that they must pick their spots in order to identify the best chances to win. They also have to do this in order to preserve their bankroll. Picking your spots in Australian horse racing is not difficult because there are so many races to choose from.

What you will typically find in horse racing from Australia is that the races are very competitive. There are not as many cheap claiming races as one will find in America. When races are competitive they can be harder to handicap. Race class alone does not determine odds. Field size and the distribution of wagers matter, and an apparently competitive race can still contain a heavily backed favorite.

The best advice is to create an account with an online racebook. Confirm which major Australian tracks and bet types the account actually covers. You can then use your past performances to identify races that look promising. Once you have found them, focus on betting those at the online racebook.

Australian-Specific Handicapping Angles Worth Exploiting

Beyond the general principles of form analysis, several Australian form factors are worth recording and testing; they do not establish above-average returns without a relevant results sample. The barrier draw — equivalent to post position in North American racing — can be significant, depending on the distance and course configuration, particularly at tracks with short runs to the first turn where wide barriers can place horses at an immediate structural disadvantage. Monitoring barrier statistics at your target tracks and weighting draw considerations explicitly in your assessments is a basic but high-value practice for Australian racing bettors.

The interstate shipping pattern is another angle worth tracking. Australian horses regularly travel between the major state-based circuits — between Sydney and Melbourne in particular — and the form patterns of horses shipping from one state to another can require adjustments for course direction, distance, ground and the quality of opposition. Horses that have competed successfully in strong New South Wales races but are making their first Melbourne appearance should be assessed against the new field and available price. A first interstate appearance does not establish unfamiliarity among bettors or an automatic overlay. For more on Australian racing and handicapping, our articles on a beginner’s guide to Australian horse racing and picking horse race winners in Australia cover the practical dimensions. And our guide to Australian racing terms covers the terminology you need to follow form discussion.

Become Friendly with Timeform Ratings

Another key to picking race winners in Australia is to become familiar with Timeform Ratings and how they are used. You should know that these ratings are comparable to the Beyer Speed Figures which are popular in America. The difference, however, is very important. Beyer Figures focus solely on speed. The Timeform Ratings use speed and other factors to give a more complete picture of a horse’s ability.

In both cases the ultimate goal is to quantify the ability of a horse in a single number. That makes it much easier for the handicapper to compare one horse against another. Of course, if it were really that easy everyone would be doing it. All types of figures call for interpretation on the part of the handicapper.

The best way to learn how to interpret the Timeform Ratings is to use them regularly. You will find it helpful to go back and watch replays that may shed some light on how a horse earned a specific figure. Over time you will begin to understand the logic of such figures and how they may be used to pick winners.

These few tips should get you off to a very good start at picking winners in Australia. When you are ready to give it a try, be sure to check out our recommended online racebooks. You can play the races from your computer, phone, or tablet right in your own home. See our Bovada racebook review, Twinspires review or even our Betamerica review. Check current availability and account eligibility in your jurisdiction. online racebook comparison for folks anywhere!

Related to Australian horse racing:

• 10 Amazing Facts About Australian Horse Racing
• The Australian Racing Board
• Flemington Racecourse In Melbourne, Australia
• Doomben Racecourse, Brisbane
• Eagle Farm Racecourse, Brisbane
• The Melbourne Cup – Australias’s Biggest Horse Race
• The Cox Plate Australian Horse Race
• Timeform Ratings & Australian Horse Racing
• The Golden Slipper Stakes Australian Horse Race
• Phar Lap – The Sad End Of Australia’s Greatest Race Horse
• Top 10 Legendary Australian Race Horses
• The Australian Racing Hall Of Fame
• The Best Way To Bet Horse Races From Australia
• Australian Racing Terms You Need To Know
• 5 Reasons To Bet Australian Horse Racing
• Top 10 Jockeys In Australian Horse Racing
• Picking Horse Race Winners In Australia

Build a race-specific Australian shortlist

Start with the official field, track rating, rail position and distance. Compare each runner’s recent form under similar conditions, then map who is likely to lead, press or settle back. A horse’s pedigree can support a surface or distance hypothesis, but its actual race record generally supplies stronger evidence when available. Revisit the map after scratches because a withdrawn pace setter can change the whole race.

The older operator and payment examples above should be verified against current rules. A site displaying Australian races does not prove that the bet enters the host tote pool, that the same dividend applies, or that your location permits the wager. Ask the provider which pool or pricing method it uses and check the complete stake before submitting. Passing a race is reasonable when the available odds are shorter than your fair-price estimate. For example, an estimated fair price of 5/1 does not justify a 3/1 offer simply because the horse is your most likely winner.

A practical Australian race assessment

A fair-odds estimate translates your assessment into a decision: a 20% win probability corresponds to 4/1 net odds before allowing for uncertainty. It is possible to like a horse’s chance and still pass at an unattractive price. Keep a dated record of selections, rejected races and actual settlement so that a remembered winner does not replace a complete review of results. For official fields and results, use Racing Australia.