Betting on Upsets
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Do you want to make large profits betting horses at an online racebook comparison? Backing outsiders is one approach to investigate, not a requirement for consistent profit. An upset in horse racing usually results in high payouts, but these bets are difficult to spot and win.
EZ Horse Betting has created a brief guide that will give you the information you need for betting on upsets. You can find these bets on a live race track, or you can find them every day at your preferred online racebook.
What Are Upsets in Horseracing?
The best way to define an upset would be as an outcome that is unexpected, or an outcome that defies the norm. When a horse wins that the public did not expect to win, that could be called an upset. As you can probably imagine, upsets usually result in large payouts for a few lucky bettors.
Upsets happen every day in horse racing. They can occur at the smallest tracks and at the largest. The reason for these opportunities is that the public is actively involved in picking winners at horse racing. It is the betting public which determines which horses will be deemed the favorite when the gates open and the race begins.
As a handicapper in general, the public is pretty good. The favorite can be the most likely individual winner while still having less than a 50% chance. Its win rate varies by race population; losing does not by itself mean the public mispriced it. When you can determine that the public has made an error, betting opportunities abound. The upset may be on the horizon.
It is one thing for the public to create a false favorite in horse racing. To truly be an upset, though, a winning horse needs to be one that was perceived to have little chance of winning. Seabiscuit in his legendary match race with War Admiral may have been one of the biggest upsets of all time. Many people were rooting for the little horse to win, but many insiders in horse racing felt that he would be beaten.
Or how about Birdstone upsetting the Triple Crown run of Smarty Jones in 2004? That was an upset for the ages. The author’s original account says spectators threw trash at Birdstone’s owner afterward; that crowd-behavior account is retained as the author’s report. The Museum of Racing confirms Birdstone’s 36-1 victory by a length.
Spotting a Potential Upset
We mentioned before that upsets happen every day on the race track. This is true. Many race cards yield moments that leave bettors scratching their collective heads, wondering how a certain horse was able to pull off a victory. With so many upsets, finding them should be easy.
Not so fast. Handicapping is a skill that can take years to perfect. Some would even go so far as to call it an art form. Finding winners is hard enough. Locating the horse that has the potential to upset a favorite is very hard.
Spotting a potential upset begins with identifying a vulnerable favorite. You should be able to determine which horses have a chink in their armor. There will be something in the past performances that does not seem quite right to you. When your senses tell you to look closer for vulnerabilities, listen to them.
The favored horse may have been racing too often. Maybe it is trying a new distance today for the first time. New bandages are an equipment observation, not a diagnosis of injury. You have to know which of these things matter and which of them will have no impact on the favorite’s ability.
Likewise, you should look for horses that have the potential to be an upset. A horse that has a reputation for performing poorly is likely to do that again today. Don’t think a horse will suddenly improve without a specific reason to expect a different performance. Results do not reveal a horse’s private intentions.
A horse that shows recent poor performances may have a legitimate excuse for them. When you look closer, you might find that the horse was not doing well with a certain trainer or jockey and that a change has been made. Maybe the horse was competing at a level above its head and is being dropped into a lower class today. There are many factors which could work together to improve a horse’s chance to win, making it a potential upset.
Strategies for Betting the Underdog
Certain betting strategies are well-suited to taking a chance on the underdog. One of these would be including potential upset horses in exotic bets like the Pick 4 or superfecta.
When you use longshot horses in exotic bets you are creating the potential for high profits. The reason for this is that the level of difficulty increases the risk of the bet, and risk increases the potential reward. A large possible return means fewer successes may be needed to break even, but it can also come with long losing runs. Count the cost of every combination. A difficult ticket does not become good value merely because its potential payout is large.
Betting upsets straight can also be profitable, but many bettors are not comfortable making wagers on horses that are 30-1 or higher. Rightfully so. These horses do not win their fair share of races, and in most cases they are a poor bet. Using them underneath creates a different wager, whose value still depends on the complete combination and its payout.
Underneath means the spots that complete an exotic ticket. This would be the second and third spots in a trifecta, for example. You don’t always need an upset to win in order to make a large profit. Sometimes you only need the horse to run second or third when you couple it with a horse that has a better chance to win.
We would recommend that you create your own special notebook for keeping track of the underdogs that you bet and the strategies that you use. Over time you will come to refer to this book of angles and let it inform your betting on upsets.
How to Find Genuine Upset Candidates Systematically
Start with a specific mismatch between the public price and your assessment. A return from a layoff, a class drop or a blinker change is a question to investigate, not a promise of inflated odds. Workouts do not establish peak fitness, and a conspicuous trainer angle may already attract support.
Check eligibility before treating a class change as an angle. A horse that has already won a qualifying race cannot simply drop back into a maiden because its recent form is poor. See the NYRA condition-book definitions. A move from allowance company into claiming company is a different change, and can raise questions as well as lower the competition.
For each candidate, record the evidence for improvement and the evidence against it. Compare the new task with relevant earlier performances. Use the value guide and false-favorite discussion to connect that assessment to a price.
When Underdogs Really Aren’t Upsets
Just as there are false favorites, there are also false underdogs. Some horses just fail to get the attention that they deserve at the race track no matter how well they do. When they win a race the crowd can’t believe it, but the smart handicapper has seen it coming all along.
Maybe you have been watching a horse that has consistently gotten better in its previous races. It has been finishing better with every outing, and now it looks poised to win. The problem is that the horse is facing some legitimate tough competition. Maybe this horse winning would not be such a surprise when you look at it on a deeper level.
There are few feelings that can beat the satisfaction of knowing you have spotted a horse which others have overlooked and dismissed as a loser. That makes all the hard work you have done as a handicapper worth it.
Are you ready to try betting on upsets with one of our recommended online racebooks? We encourage you to sign up today and start wagering with your computer, phone, or tablet. Read any bonus’s wagering and withdrawal conditions before deciding whether to accept it. Check our Bovada racebook review, BUSR, MyBookie, BetUS, Twinspires review or even our Betamerica review. Check current location eligibility and account terms. online racebook comparison for folks anywhere!
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An Upset Can Still Be a Bad Price
Suppose an outsider is offered at 19-1. A $2 win bet returns $40 including stake if it wins. At a genuine 5% winning chance, its expected return is 0.05 × $40 = $2: break-even before any additional costs. If its chance is only 3%, expected return falls to $1.20 per $2 wager. The spectacular-looking payout has not changed, but the value has.
Now suppose you use that horse third in a trifecta behind two selections for first and three different selections for second. If those groups are distinct, that is six ordered combinations. At a $1 base the ticket costs $6, not $1. The outsider finishing third still leaves you needing the correct first and second horses, in the correct order. Compare the potential return with the full $6 expense.
Keep win bets and underneath tickets in separate records. They test different opinions: one concerns the horse winning; the other concerns its place within an exact order. A winner in one record cannot repair a loss in the other by hindsight. Include losing races and passes so that the eventual review does not become a collection of memorable surprises.
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