The first Kentucky Derby took place in 1875. Just 10,000 fans showed up that day to watch Aristides win in dramatic fashion. Aristides was a spectacular looking chestnut colt trained by Ansel Williamson and owned by H. P. McGrath. The horse jockey on that day was Oliver Lewis. None of them could have imagined that they were literally racing into the history books of horseracing.
Because the field of horses in the Kentucky Derby is so big the race is often won by a longshot. In 1913, Donrail won the race and paid an amazing $194 for every $2 bet on him. This trend has continued throughout the race’s history. The post time favorite rarely wins the Kentucky Derby. Keep this in mind when you handicap the race! Some longshot winners have included the 50-1 Giacomo in 2005 and the 50-1 Mine That Bird just four years later in 2009. The average win payoff in the Kentucky Derby since 2000 is an astounding $34 on a $2 bet!
Only two runners since 2000 have paid less than $10.00, Fusaichi Pegasus returned just $6.60 in 2000 and Big Brown netted a win of $6.80 in 2008. These horses were both much the best coming into the race and did not disappoint. They are, however, the exception to the rule. So many things can go wrong in a race of this magnitude that it is very difficult for the favorite to win.
Ben A. Jones, Bob Baffert, and D. Wayne Lukas are among the leading trainers when it comes to saddling a Kentucky Derby winner. Todd Pletcher and Dale Romans also regularly enter horses in this event. Only a few jockeys have won the Derby more than once, and Eddie Arcaro and Bill Hartack did it five times each!
EZ Horse Betting Fun Fact
The most successful active jockey to ride in the Kentucky Derby is Calvin Borel, with three wins. Borel is nicknamed “Bo-rail” because he has been known to hug the inner rail so tightly that he returns to the winner’s circle with white paint on his boots!
Kentucky Derby Winners Since 2000 with $2 payoffs:
2012: I’ll Have Another $32.60
2011: Animal Kingdom $43.80
2010: Super Saver $18.00
2009: Mine That Bird $103.20
2008: Big Brown $6.80
2007: Street Sense $11.80
2006: Barbaro $14.20
2005: Giacomo $102.60
2004: Smarty Jones $10.20
2003: Funny Cide $27.60
2002: War Emblem $43.00
2001: Monarchos $23.00
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus $6.60
Also check the following:
- Betting the 2022 Kentucky Derby
- Betting a Kentucky Derby Parlay
- How to Make a Mint Julep (the official drink of the Kentucky Derby)
- Betting on Kentucky-Bred Horses
- How Points Are Earned for Kentucky Derby
- How to bet on the kentucky derby for Free
The Kentucky Derby as a Betting Market: What the Numbers Show
The Kentucky Derby generates more wagering handle than any other single horse race in North America, and the composition of that betting pool — with its large proportion of once-a-year casual bettors — creates specific pricing inefficiencies that systematic bettors can exploit. The casual betting public tends to concentrate money on horses they have heard about through mainstream media coverage, on horses with visually impressive recent performances, and on horses whose connections have generated positive pre-race publicity. These preferences systematically over-bet certain horses while leaving others available at prices that exceed their true probability.
The most consistently productive Derby betting approach focuses on finding the horse or horses whose preparation and form justify a higher probability of winning than the market price implies — rather than simply trying to identify the winner without reference to price. In a typical Derby field of eighteen to twenty horses, identifying two or three horses whose odds significantly exceed their true probability of winning, and structuring your wagering around those overlays, produces better long-run results than attempting to pick the single winner. For comprehensive Derby betting strategy, our articles on betting the 2022 Kentucky Derby and how points are earned for the Kentucky Derby provide the full preparation and betting framework. And our guide to the Derby superfecta record covers the exotic betting potential.
