EZ Horse Betting is a true science. It rewards those who come up with unique methods to handicap horses. Learning how to evaluate favorites to pick and bet other horses may produce some good winners at long odds.
Favorites are the horses which are expected to win a race. They are sometimes vulnerable to defeat. These false favorites can sometimes point you toward overlooked horses that have a better chance of winning. This guide will show you how to accomplish this angle and improve your own handicapping.
Different Types of Favorites
Favorites come in all shapes and sizes. There are some which offer a better wagering opportunity than others. We have identified four different types of favorites that you may encounter at your online racebook. When you learn how to spot them you can sometimes target other horses.
Always remember that betting only favorites at horse racing is a sure way for you to lose your bankroll. You must learn how to beat them to beat the game. They win an average of 33% of the time without fail.
The Mortal Lock
The mortal lock is a favorite that is very difficult to bet against. It has all the credentials and ability to win. This horse is so much better than the rest of the field that no one can overlook it. As a result, a mortal lock often returns less than even money on a bet. As you can imagine, it is almost impossible to make money on a horse like this one.
One way to use a mortal lock can be as a key in your exotic wagers. You can anchor a Pick 3 or Pick 4 with this horse and still receive a decent payout if the bet wins. That is often much better than making a win bet on the horse itself. The low return is not worth the risk.
Mortal lock favorites are almost a necessity when you are playing a Pick 6 wager. The cost of this bet is so high that you have to have some singles in the sequence. A mortal lock or two will greatly reduce the cost of your ticket.
The False Favorite
The false favorite is a horse that has glaring issues in its past performances. Somehow, the betting public has made this horse a favorite. The reason is not important. All that matters is your ability to spot the horse’s weakness. That weakness could be revealed in the bandages it must wear today or the addition of blinkers.
There are few feelings as good as spotting a false favorite. You can then turn your attention to the other horses in a race and find one that is truly worth betting on. You will usually get an average of 5-1 odds on a horse that is able to defeat a false favorite. Just know that people will sometimes laugh when you reveal your selection. They will not be able to see past the favorite that you have identified as weak.
The Public Darling
Call it sentimental. Call it familiarity. There are some horses on individual racing circuits that are made favorites each time they step on the track. Maybe these horses once won a lot of races and have many fans, but now they are older and less able. Still, the old bettors remember what the horse did in the past and crave one last taste of glory. They bet with their heart instead of their head.
You should never feel bad about betting against a public darling. Remember Smarty Jones making an attempt to win the Triple Crown at Belmont Park in 2004? It was the 100th anniversary of the Triple Crown and Smarty Jones was loved by everyone following wins in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. When he was defeated in the Belmont Stakes by the 36-1 Birdstone, the crowd in attendance was so angry that they pelted Birdstone’s trainer and elderly owner with trash.
The Risky Proposition
A final type of favorite is the risky proposition. On closer inspection there could be several horses like this in a race posing a threat under the right conditions.
For example, let’s say that a horse is used to running and winning on a dry track. It does not like the mud, but today it has rained and there are at least five other horses in the race which do not have a problem with the wet surface. This may be a favorite that is doomed to failure.
Horses That Finish Second and Third to Favorites
There are many bettors who think that the job of handicapping is over once they have picked their winners and watched a race to its conclusion. For smart bettors this is when it becomes time to evaluate favorites to pick and bet other horses. They get started by accessing a chart of the race in question.
A racing chart is similar to the past performances but it gives you more information that the brief running line for each horse. A chart will allow you to determine if a horse was in trouble in a race or if it encountered no difficulty and won with ease.
Where you will really find help is in looking at the running lines of horses that finished second or third to a strong favorite. Think about it. Horses that were beaten by a strong favorite likely would have run if that horse was not in the race. In their net race they are unlikely to face the same horse again. This can mean that they have a good chance to win.
This is a very good angle when you are handicapping maiden races. You will encounter maidens that finished second or third in their last races. These horses sometimes have every right to improve when they are ran again. You can count on them in some cases to exceed their expectations. When these horses come back to win, this is called graduation day by handicappers.
No handicapping angle is foolproof. It will take you some time to perfect and refine your own approaches to choosing winners at horse racing. Once you have mastered skills like evaluating favorites to pick other horses the process will become much easier.
The best way to try out an angle when you want to apply it at horse racing is to make bets an an online racebook. We have recommended several for you to try. You could receive free past performances and race replays when you sign up, and betting is available from your phone or tablet. Even better, some racebooks will give you free money when you make your first deposit. Check our Bovada racebook review, busr review, BetUS, or even MyBookie.ag. All great choice if you are in the US. 5Dimes review for folks anywhere!
