What you may not know is that some races suit certain running styles better than others. When you are able to identify the horses who are flattered by a projected race shape, you might be able to identify a big winner at a hefty price.
Understanding Race Shapes and Running Styles
Each horse race has a particular shape or manner in which it plays out. It is the job of the handicapper to try and envision this shape. What this means is to try and project where each horse will be at various stages of the race. Which horses will be on or near the lead? Which horses will be near the middle of the field. Which horses will be in the rear?
To complete this projection you need to assign running styles to the horses in the race. Doing this is fairly simple. All you really need are the past performances that you can receive from your online racebook for free. There are three basic running styles you will want to look for:
- A front-runner will likely have been on the lead or within one length of the lead during its last three races
- A stalker will have been within three lengths of the leader during the early running of its most recent races
- A closer will have trailed the field in its most recent races before making a run at the end
In your past performances, make a small notation beside each horse that identifies which running style they have. Now, using that information, try to envision where each horse will be at every stage of the race today.
Flattered or Compromised?
The next step is considering whether the likely shape of the race today will flatter or compromise the running style of an individual horse. There are specific things to look for in this regard:
- Are there multiple speed horses in the race today? If so, these horses may engage in a speed duel which will make it more likely that a stalker or closer is able to win the race.
- Is there a lone front-runner today? If no other horses have early speed, the lone front-runner may cruise to victory because other horses allow it to get loose on the lead.
- Is there enough pace to support the deep closer? What you need to project here is how fast the horses on the lead will run today. If the opening quarter mile of the race is ran at :22 seconds, this is very fast for most circuits. If it is ran at :25 seconds this is very slow. A fast pace in the front helps the closer. A slow pace makes it harder for them to gain ground in the end.
It takes a little practice but in time you will be able to make these determinations quickly. You will intuitively look at your past performances and know which horses are likely to benefit or suffer today from the projected shape of the race.
Projecting a Race is Subjective
No handicapper can know precisely how a race will play out on the track. It’s impossible because there are so many variables involved. Horses can encounter bad racing luck. They can be given a bad ride. They may break poorly from the starting gate and lose all hope of winning.
All you can really do is make an educated guess, but sometimes this is enough. In fact, the entire business of handicapping is one big educated guess. You assess the information you are given and take a stand with a specific horse.
Projecting a race is simply one more way that you can have a little more information than your fellow bettors. It will give you just a small added edge when you might need it the most.
If you are ready to give projecting races a try, why not create an account with one of our recommended online racebooks today? You can receive a large welcome bonus in addition to free past performances and other benefits like race replays. Signing up takes just a few moments and in just minutes you can wager from your computer, smartphone, or tablet. Check our Bovada racebook review, Twinspires review or even our Betamerica review. All great choice if you are in the US. 5Dimes review for folks anywhere!
