Cheap Horses That Run Behind Stay Behind

Cheap horses are the mainstay of every race track in the world. Everyone likes to watch the talented runners in the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup, but cheap claimers are what fill the majority of races on any given day. Before you bet on cheap horses at your favorite online racebook, you should beware a certain type of runner. A deep closer in a low-level claimer can face a difficult setup when the early pace is slow. That is a race-by-race question, not an automatic rule.

What is a Cheap Horse?

A cheap horse can be defined as any animal that runs in the lower level claiming ranks. This article uses $15,000 or less as an example; what counts as a low level varies by track, purse structure and race restrictions. A claiming race is one in which every horse in the race is for sale at the claiming price. A claiming entry can reflect class placement, ownership plans or other factors. It does not establish lameness or a trainer’s private intention to dispose of a horse; welfare and fitness require their own evidence.

The road to the claiming level is different for all horses. Some of them are legitimately less talented than other horses and never race in any other type of event. Some are horses that formerly did very well. Now they have gotten older or are perhaps suffering from nagging injuries. It doesn’t really matter how they got there. What matters is that the horse is now valued way below what it once was for a reason.

This is not to say that you cannot make money from EZ Horse Betting in this way. Unless you want to only wager at an online racebook a few times each year when the big events happen, you must learn how to bet claimers. The problem with handicapping claiming races is that the form of the horses in a race can vary wildly. A horse that has been running dead last might up and win a claiming race with no indications that it will do so.

Even though these are hard races to handicap, there are some things you can do to improve your chances at winning. One of them is to recognize cheap horses that you should stay away from at all costs. The cheap horse that runs behind is one of these.

Claiming-Horse Running Styles

If you are a regular reader of EZ Horse Betting then you are familiar with three basic running styles:

• The front-runner
• The stalker
• The deep closer

Each horse has its own preferred style of running. The front-runner likes to take the lead and try to hold it. The stalker likes to sit right behind the leaders. The deep closer likes to retreat to the rear of the pack and make a dramatic finish. You will see all three styles in cheap horse races.

A stalking or closing style is not less purposeful merely because the race is a low-level claimer. Position can reflect early speed, tactics, the draw or trouble at the start. Distinguish a runner who regularly makes a competitive late move from one who loses ground throughout. Race class affects the opponents, but it does not by itself reveal the jockey’s plan or make every horse at the back an unsuitable contender.

Read the full sequence of calls rather than the final position alone. A closer who gained ground after a troubled start presents a different case from one who was never competitive in an evenly run race. Compare similar distances and surfaces, then ask whether today’s likely pace gives the horse a route into contention. The jockey’s reputation does not remove the need to evaluate the individual horse.

Identifying Cheap Closers Worth Opposing

The handicapping principle that cheap closers rarely overcome their positional disadvantages is most reliably exploited when combined with complementary analysis that confirms a specific horse is unlikely to improve its running style. The key indicators that a cheap closer is worth opposing rather than simply fading are: a consistent pattern of running behind throughout multiple races without showing any signs of positional improvement, a trainer who has not demonstrated ability to change a horse’s running style through equipment or tactical adjustments, and a field composition where the available pace is likely to be modest — removing the fast early fractions that cheap closers need to produce their best late work.

Conversely, cheap horses that run prominently — even if they have not been winning — deserve more credit than their form lines typically receive. A horse that has been consistently placing from close to the pace at modest prices but hasn’t won is much better placed for a competitive effort when field composition and pace scenario align in their favour than a cheap closer who needs specific conditions to produce a late run. The speed-biased tracks that characterise many North American dirt circuits may favour early speed on a particular day, but neither a lasting bias nor a market inefficiency should be assumed from the claiming price. Compare relevant races and prices before drawing that conclusion. For more on running style handicapping, our articles on betting running styles in horse racing and understanding track bias in horse racing cover the key dynamics. And our guide on cheap horses that run behind stay behind explores the specific angle.

Cheap Horses Don’t Close – Speed Horses Get Tired

Some will be saying that this mentality defies racing logic. The handicapper can see that some cheap horses are indeed trying to make a late run, and some of them are successful. Not every cheap race is won by a horse that led the field from wire to wire.

A late gain can happen because the closer quickens, the leaders slow down, or both. That is true at different class levels. Sectional times and the race replay are better evidence than assuming every horse in a cheap race is slowing. Gaining position alone does not prove an exceptional finishing speed; compare elapsed time, ground covered and the pace that preceded the move.

Some horse has to win the race. In cheap races this is usually the horse that is most fit. It is the horse that runs out of gas last. Pay attention to fitness in your handicapping of cheap horse races. You want to look for horses that have a tendency to finish well, work out often, and are reliable in their performance.

Watching cheap horses run and making bets on them is seductive. Many handicappers will often try to convince themselves that they have identified a winner no matter what that means. They will rationalize why the horse went to the back of the pack and stayed there. Do not do this! It will only cost you money when you make your online racebook bets.

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Separate a Closing Style From a Noncompetitive Run

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