Gamblers have known for many years that some bets can be improved by mathematical concepts. Horse racing is no different. Are there math secrets to horse racing betting? At least one researcher thinks so.
Blackjack was revolutionized by the mathematical analysis that led to the creation of card counting. Now, some math experts believe that studying the techniques of human runners may be able to explain why some race horses are able to outperform others.
A Scientific Analysis of Pace in Horse Racing
A recent study published on Science.org addresses math in horse racing betting. The study is interesting. Before looking at it in depth we should take time to mention the contributions of Dr. Howard Sartin to the study of pace in horse racing. Sartin was an avid horse racing bettor who believed that pace was more important to the outcome of a race than speed. Today, the methods of Sartin remain popular among a devoted but small group of followers.
The principles at the center of Sartin’s methods are once again being examined in the study of Amandine Aftalion. She is a French mathematician who believes that she can use the running style of specific horses to explain why those horses win more often.
Specifically, Aftalion has discovered that all horses seem to benefit from a strong start. Short-distance runners, or sprinters, fared best when starting strong and slowing down in the latter stages of the race. Medium-distance runners were at their best when starting strong, relaxing in the middle stages, and releasing a final burst of speed to conclude the race.
What may come as a surprise to horse racing bettors is the influence that guided Aftalion’s study. It was not an equine athlete at all but perhaps the best human runner of the modern era. Aftalion modeled her data by studying Usain Bolt.
The essential findings of the complex study address two factors. The expenditure of aerobic and anaerobic resources possessed by the body. Aftalion found that there was a link between performance and how the athlete is able to manage these resources.
Greater Emphasis on Horse Racing Training
The thing that will come to mind among most who read this study is that humans are able to manage resources at will with proper training. The question is whether or not horses have the ability to intuit running style and make their own adjustments. Or, do they have to rely on the assistance of a trainer to create cues for using running styles.
Horses in a race are largely told what to do by the jockeys who ride them. The jockeys are given instructions by a trainer. This would seem to indicate that trainer skill should be given a certain emphasis when betting horses.
What This Means for Horse Racing Betting
There is math at the heart of the study that has been produced by Aftalion. What most handicappers will want to know is how that math can be distilled down to perhaps a single number that expresses a horse’s ability.
This has already been done when it comes to evaluating speed in horse racing. The Beyer Speed Figures have long been the industry standard for comparing the speed of one horse with another. While they are not perfect, the figures have been a reliable indicator of how fast a horse can be expected to run.
The mathematics behind the Beyer figures is complex and proprietary. Andrew Beyer did reveal how the figures were created in his books on horse racing betting. It is entirely possible to produce your own speed figures, but most bettors don’t want to take the time to do that. They want to have access to a single number, and they can get that in the Daily Racing Form.
In recent years the Daily Racing Form has introduced something known as the Moss Pace Figures into its publication. These figures, like the ones for speed, attempt to assign a pace rating to each race in a single number.
Remember old Doctor Sartin? This is the same thing that he was trying to do when he introduced his own pace figures to the world. Many horse racing bettors think that Sartin never got the credit that he deserved for his work. Now, the present studies of math secrets to horse racing betting could be able to validate the Sartin contributions to the study of pace.
Are There Math Secrets to Betting Horses Online?
Many of our readers at EZ Horse Betting will want to know if there is a connection between math secrets and wagering at an online racebook. There is definitely an advantage to using math when you are handicapping horse racing online.
Online racebooks have changed the face of horse racing and how we are apt to bet races today. For one, online racebooks give bettors access to more race tracks. What this means is that there are more racing surfaces and more pace scenarios for bettors to contend with. This has the effect of making races harder to handicap and bets harder to win.
What we mentioned before about expressing pace scenarios in a single figure becomes even more important in this context. A single number is needed so that horses which have been competing at one track can be compared with horses that have been competing at another.
Math like this could be very useful to the handicapper on the biggest days in horse racing. It would allow the bettor to make a quicker evaluation of talented horses that have never faced one another. The bettor could then use both pace and speed numbers to get a more accurate picture of how a race is likely to unfold.
If you are ready to start using your knowledge of math in horse racing betting, we suggest that you open an account with one of our recommended online horse betting sites. You only need a phone or tablet and a data connection to make you horse racing bets right from home. It only takes a few minutes to get your account up and running. See our Bovada racebook review, Twinspires review or even our Betamerica review. All great choice if you are in the US. 5Dimes review for folks anywhere!