Beating the Favorite in Horse Racing Betting
All good handicappers know that to win at horse racing you must be able to regularly beat favorites. A favorite is the horse with the lowest odds when the gates open and the race begins. It is also true that the winning percentage of favorites is a statistic that remains true year after year. Just 30% of favorites win their race.
This means that one out of every three favorites is legitimate. The other two are false favorites. How does this happen? The answer is that the betting public determines the favorite. The horse that has the most money wagered on it will be the favorite and have the lowest odds. The public gets it right at an average of 30%-33%. That’s actually not bad when you consider how hard it is to pick winners.
Success in horse racing betting boils down to building on the one-in-three average. In other words, you need to be winning at a higher clip. You can do this by picking more winners, or by getting more value on the horses that you win with.
What if there were a racing circuit where favorites only won about 25% of the time? That would give you the opportunity to make more money when betting on horses. Good news! There is indeed a horse racing circuit where favorites are more regularly beaten.
Favorites Win Less Often In Hong Kong Horse Racing
Hong Kong is a racing circuit where the normal statistics are often defied. In Hong Kong, the post time favorite in a horse race wins just a little over 25%, or one in four attempts. This means that if you only bet favorites in Hong Kong you will lose three of every four bets on average. You don’t have to be very smart to see that this strategy is doomed to fail.
Why? Because when a favorite does win you are going to be getting even money or less. There is not enough value to merit betting favorites in Hong Kong horse racing under almost any circumstance. Of course there are exceptions, but exceptions do not lead to betting profits.
The other side of the issue is that fewer legitimate favorites creates more wagering opportunities. Three out of four races are going to be won by horses that offer better odds. Some will even be long shots. When you have a chance at bagging long shot winners on a regular basis, you have a chance at winning big.
Why Are Horse Racing Favorites Vulnerable in Hong Kong?
There are probably many factors which contribute to the unique nature of Hong Kong racing and favorites. One thing that we can’t say is that the betting public there is less informed. Some of the best handicappers in the world make a living at the Hong Kong race tracks. These astute bettors account for only a portion of the wagering, but they bet large amounts which are able to move the odds on horses in a single blink of the tote board.
It has been the preference of many Hong Kong bettors to make their wagers late. This is done so the incoming money does not influence other bettors. Some people who bet on horse racing only look at the tote board. This is why an early favorite in American horse racing will usually maintain that status until the race begins. Everyone wants to jump on the bandwagon when they think a horse is a sure thing to win.
Logic would suggest that horse racing favorites in Hong Kong fail more often because the races are more competitive. A larger number of quality horses in a race makes the race more difficult to handicap. The betting public has more difficulty agreeing on a common favorite.
The fields in Hong Kong racing are also larger. The sheer presence of more horses in a race means that it is less likely a valid favorite will emerge. There will be many more different opinions among bettors, and those opinions will produce some false favorites.
How Can You Spot False Horse Racing Favorites in Hong Kong?
There is no substitute for good handicapping. This applies to any racing circuit in the world. When you bet horses in Hong Kong at your favorite online horse betting sites, you have to stand by your own opinion. If your handicapping suggests that a favorite is vulnerable, don’t be afraid to look elsewhere for a bet.
If you are the kind of bettor that watches betting action to help determine which bets you will make, try to wait until moments before the race before you bet. As we mentioned earlier, late money in Hong Kong can have meaning. If you see money flowing into the horse that you like late in the game, this could be a sign that the smart handicappers are wagering on it. They wait until the final moments to prevent dropping the odds on the horse.
Are you ready to try your luck betting on Hong Kong horse racing? We suggest that you give one of our recommended online racebooks a try. You can get free past performances and other handicapping tools when you sign up, and you may even receive a bonus on your first deposit.
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