American Pharoah Loses At Saratoga

The infamous “Graveyard of Favorites” struck once again on Saturday, August 29, 2015 when American Pharoah, the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years, was defeated in the $1.6 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga by Keen Ice. It was the first loss for American Pharoah in his last nine races including the Triple Crown series and Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park.

In the picture to the left seen here “Keen Ice (7), with jockey Javier Castellano, moves past Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, with Victor Espinoza, to win the Travers Stakes.(Photo: Hans Pennink, AP)”

Saratoga was sold out and filled with 50,000 fans who came to watch the Triple Crown winner continue his amazing run on his way to the Breeders’ Cup Classic in late October. It was not to be, however, as Keen Ice overcame a leg weary American Pharoah in the stretch to win the Travers and deprive those in attendance of yet another AP victory celebration. Keen Ice, trained by Dale Romans and ridden to victory by Javier Castellano, finished second to American Pharoah in the Haskell and chased the champion through the entire Triple Crown series.

Baffert says American Pharoah is tired

After the race, American Pharoah’s trainer Bob Baffert said that the miles the colt has had to travel could have impacted his performance.

“That’s a lot of mileage,” said Baffert in reference to the 18,000 travel miles covered by American Pharoah in his quest to become possible the greatest horse of all time. “He went to Arkansas twice. And then he went to Kentucky, Maryland, back to Kentucky, New York, back to Kentucky, back to California…Jersey, back to California back…I mean, you don’t see a horse do that. You have to be really special to do that.”

With the Breeders’ Cup World Championships on the horizon, some will likely question the choice of running American Pharoah in the Travers instead of giving him time off to prepare for the Classic. Even Baffert admits that running in the Travers may have hurt the horse’s chances in the Breeders’ Cup.

“I don’t know, I wanted to see how taxing this race was on him,” the trainer said. “This is something we have to sit and figure out. I’m not really used to being in this position with him, so it’s sort of hard to digest right now.”

Why is Saratoga so hard on favorites?

Saratoga has long had the reputation for being the “Graveyard of Favorites” but when one examines the total picture here it isn’t hard to swallow American Pharoah’s loss. The horse came into the race four weeks after the Haskell and just a few months after the grueling Triple Crown. Campaign demands were discussed after the race, but exhaustion is an interpretation rather than a diagnosis established here. Frosted’s pressure and Keen Ice’s finishing run are observable elements of the race.

Consider this: only one Triple Crown winner has gone on to win the Travers at Saratoga—Whirlaway in 1941. That observation about Travers winners was tied to the original 2015 article and is no longer correct: Arrogate won both races in 2016. His BRISnet performance retrospective records the sequence.

The nickname describes famous upsets rather than a mechanism that defeats favorites. Analyze race shape, condition and opposition separately before attributing an outcome to a venue’s reputation.

What American Pharoah’s Travers Defeat Teaches Bettors

American Pharoah’s defeat to Keen Ice in the 2015 Travers Stakes at Saratoga — the only loss of his championship season — is a fascinating case study in how even the most exceptional horses can be beaten on a given day when conditions align against them. The Travers came shortly after the arduous Triple Crown campaign and the Haskell victory; the Breeders’ Cup Classic still lay ahead, and while Pharoah’s connections believed he was fresh enough to compete, the cumulative demands of a long, intense season may have left him marginally below the peak condition he needed to dominate a fresh, specifically targeted rival.

From a betting perspective, the Travers result illustrates two important principles. First, no horse — however exceptional — can be backed at prohibitive odds without acknowledging the genuine possibility of defeat from a fresh, well-targeted rival. Second, the concept of campaign fatigue is real and affects even the most physically gifted horses when they are asked to sustain peak condition across an unusually demanding schedule. Keen Ice’s connections had identified the Travers as a specific target and arrived with a horse at its competitive peak, while Pharoah was competing off a longer, more demanding campaign. This possible fitness difference is worth investigating whenever you assess major races late in a horse’s campaign. For more on American Pharoah’s season, our article on American Pharoah wins the first Grand Slam covers his full story. And our guide to betting fitness in horse racing covers campaign fatigue analysis.

Does the loss diminish American’s Pharoah’s greatness?

Losing the Travers really doesn’t do that much to dull the shine on American Pharoah’s accomplishments. Secretariat lost after winning the Triple Crown and is still regarded as the greatest horse of all time. The breeding rights to American Pharoah have already been sold. There is little significance in the horse losing at Saratoga.

From another angle, it is just hard to see champions and sports heroes lose. The sporting fan wants their heroes to go out a winner. No fan of Muhammad Ali wanted to see the aging champ be destroyed in his final bouts. They would have much preferred to remember Ali has he was when he defeated Foreman in the Rumble in the Jungle. Horseracing fans would like to see American Pharoah exit horseracing as a winner, and that is all up to the Breeders’ Cup now.

American Pharoah subsequently won the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic, completing the Triple Crown plus Classic “Grand Slam.” The questions about his next race were contemporary reactions to the Travers, not unresolved forecasts today. Read the completed Grand Slam story alongside this report.  Hope you enjoyed your visit to EzHorseBetting.com take a minute to also check our Bovada racebook review, Twinspires review or even our Betamerica review as they are all great choice if you are in the United States. online racebook comparison for folks anywhere!

Related post: American Pharoah Wins The First Grand Slam

The 2015 defeat and what followed

A losing favorite does not prove that the pre-race price was wrong, just as a winning longshot does not prove it was a predictable selection. Review the assumptions available before the race, then distinguish evidence about pace from retrospective guesses about fatigue. This keeps the article useful as a historical case study instead of presenting a memorable upset as a universal betting rule.