Every handicapper is always looking for a horse betting formula that will solve all of their problems. We will tell you up front that there is no such magic formula in horse racing. The good news is that there are a few different formulas that you can use to play the horses at an online racebook. You will ultimately have to decide which is the best horse betting formula for you.
What is a Horse Betting Formula?
Edward O. Thorp was an American mathematician who is credited with being the father of card counting. He discovered a way that blackjack players could have a mathematical advantage over the house. In all gambling games you will find individuals that have made an attempt to apply scientific principles to betting. Some have been successful. Others have not.
A horse betting formula would be one that follows the classic formula of a + b = c. Benter used a modified version of this formula to develop his computer software for picking race horse winners. Other formulas have been based on the same principle. An example:
A horse’s speed (a) + race track condition (b) = the horse’s chance to win (c).
From this we can see that all horse betting formulas have the same ultimate goal. They are trying to quantify a horse’s chance of winning into a single number that can be compared with the other horses in the race. Then, the horse bettor only has to look at the numbers he has arrived at to make a betting decision:
Horse 1 – 50% chance to win
Horse 2 – 30% chance to win
Horse 3 – 10 % chance to win
Field – Less than 10% chance to win
In the above example the choice for the bettor would be pretty cut and dried. The bet would go on Horse 1, with Horses 2 and 3 perhaps being used in exotic wagers. We understand that this is a very basic example and that the best horse betting formula would not be this simple. Please don’t send us ugly emails about the simplicity of our example. We only want to illustrate the general principle of a horse betting formula.
Why Horse Betting Formulas Are Difficult to Create
Trying to approach horse betting or any type of gambling from a scientific perspective is difficult. There is a simple reason for this. Horse racing has a human element that cannot be expressed by a formula. Indeed, the human element is one of the most difficult things to overcome when betting on horses. If it were all up to the horses perhaps it would be somewhat easier to determine which one is best, but it is not. Humans play a central role.
Maybe the jockey is having a bad day today. Perhaps the trainer is not as skilled as other trainers on the track and so takes shortcuts with illegal medications. The list of variables that can be chalked up to human involvement in horse racing is endless.
There is probably never going to be a way for horse betters to definitively develop a accurate horse betting formula. If they could do that then horse racing would no longer be a gamble. But there are some horse betting formulas that are better than others. Here are a few things that you should look for.
Characteristics of the Best Horse Betting Formula
The best horse betting formula is going to have a few distinctions over others. If you can learn to recognize these it will help you pick a more effective formula for your own use.
The best horse betting formula should have a record of success. If you are buying a betting formula from someone then you should have an opportunity to see how well the formula works. The creator should be able to provide you with a win rate. Any horse betting formula that picks winners 33% of the time is something every bettor would love to get their hands on.
The formula that you choose should also be simple. Let’s face it. Most of us that like to bet on horses at an online racebook are not mathematicians. We don’t have the skill or time to crunch numbers for a formula. What you want is a betting formula that will allow you to input basic data that is readily available in the Daily Racing Form and other publications.
An effective horse betting formula is one that will probably be managed by a computer. Having some type of software which will make the calculations for you is a great advantage. You may be able to purchase software that runs in a browser like the old Formulator from DRF. Again, you need to check the track record of the software before you buy it.
Beware of Some Horse Betting Formulas
Sadly there are many people who are trying to take advantage of bettors by selling what they describe as the best betting formula of all time. In almost every case the money that you pay for such a formula is going to waste. You would be better off devising your own simple formula, something we will talk about in just a moment.
Doc Sartin and his group of followers are still an active presence in horse betting today. They often congregate online to discuss and share their theories about a pace formula that was developed by Dr. Howard Sartin. The followers of Dr. Sartin and his formula can be like zealots who do not tolerate any question about the formula’s effectiveness. We’re not knocking the Sartin formula. We’re just saying that you should not allow yourself to become religiously devoted to one single approach.
If someone is asking you to put down vast sums of money so that you can receive the magical horse betting formula that will solve all of your betting problems, beware of that person.
Develop Your Own Simple Horse Betting Formula
The best horse betting formula may be one that you have developed yourself. There is nothing that says you can come up with a way to pick winners based on certain factors. In fact, that is what angles in horse racing are all about.
Your horse betting formula doesn’t have to be complex. We’ll show you. Here’s a simple horse betting formula we created.
a = the finish position of a horse in its last race
b = the number of times the horse has finished worse than third in its last six races
c = the numeric value given to the horses’s chances today, with the lowest number being the best bet
So, if horse 1 finished 1st in its last race (a) and has finished worse than third once in its past six races (b), the formula would be:
1 + 1 = 2
This horse is given a final rating of 2. Perform this formula for all the horses in the race and each horse will have a number that you can compare. Bet on the horse that has the lowest number. Our simple formula is made to identify horses that are in good condition and healthy enough to win. A horse that has been consistently performing well should merit your consideration today.
You can make all kinds of formulas like this, and you can even combine them to make an even better handicapping picture. There is no right or wrong way to make horse racing angles as long as you end up with a number that lets one horse be compared with another. Check the book horse racing for dummies too!
Are you ready to try out a formula that you have created or one that you have purchased? You can do that when you sign up for an account with one of our recommended online horse betting sites. You could receive a nice welcome bonus when you create your account. Check our Bovada racebook review, Twinspires review or even our Betamerica review. All great choice if you are in the US. 5Dimes review for folks anywhere!
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