If you were to ask five different handicappers about what is the best horse race betting strategy, you’d probably get five different answers. Everyone approaches handicapping differently to some extent. Some are focused on speed, others on pace. Some place a high value on money management in horse race betting. All would agree that some type of plan or strategy is important. Getting them to agree on a specific approach is almost impossible.
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EZ Horse Betting believes that there is a specific strategy is common to all successful horse racing bettors. Our opinion is that this strategy alone will go a long way toward making you a winner at the race track. Let’s get right into it and look at a simple principle you should use when making bets for real money at an online racebook.
Never Bet Horses at Low Odds
The strategy that we speak of is so simple, yet it is abandoned by many horse bettors. You should never bet horses at low odds. By low odds we mean odds of less than 3-1. You can still have success with this approach if you avoid only those horses that are offered at even money or less, but the technique really pays off when increase the restriction to include horses at 2-1.
You should already know that odds in horse racing are determined by the betting public. As more money is wagered on a certain horse the odds of that horse go down. This is because if the horse wins all those who bet on it must be paid. More bettors backing a certain horse means a smaller share of the pie. This is the heart of the parimutuel betting system.
If you were betting $200 on a horse to win at even money, a 1-1 return doesn’t sound too bad. You wouldn’t need to win very many of these bets to rack up a big profit. What if you are betting $2? That’s the bet size of many recreational horse bettors. They will argue that it was only $2 when they lose, but it takes a lot of $2 wins to make serious money.
Here’s the problem for both the $2 bettor and the $200 bettor. Horses at low odds do not win their fair share of races. In all honesty, horses that have been made betting favorites only win one out of every three races on average. That’s 33% of the time. If you only bet those horses you will lose 2 out of every 3 bets. Does this sound like a pathway to success when betting horses for profit? You don’t need to be a mathematician to see that this approach will leave you broke.
Now that you know what we just stated you will see why we recommend only betting horses at 3-1 or more as the best horse race betting strategy. Under this strategy you only need to be right one out of every three times to break even. When you account for the track takeout it is a little over 1 in 3 but you see the point. Breaking even is what keeps you in the game until you can make the big score that you’ve been looking for.
No One Beats Horse Racing Betting Favorites
If you only take one thing away from this article, let it be the knowledge that no one beats the game of horse racing betting favorites. If you want to try that you might as well be handing your money over to the race track. It won’t work and is a flawed handicapping model.
Every so often we hear of a horse player that is going to break the mold. They are convinced that they will be the Golden Child that defies this age-old maxim. With confidence they wager on every favorite. Even worse they speak as if they are a horse racing expert to have chosen a horse that everyone in attendance thinks will win. This continues until they are broke and disappear from the track.
You will not be the special one that makes a living betting favorites. The only way that we would recommend such a course of action is if you only want to bet for fun. Maybe you just want to take your family out to the races for a day of fun. You take along $20 to bet and wager $2 to win on every favorite. That is fine, and it can be fun. You’ll likely win once or twice on the day and lose several times, but in each race you will have a horse to cheer for.
Far be it from us to deny you this kind of entertainment. But entertainment is not what the serious handicapper is after. He or she wants to win money and increase their wagering bankroll. To do this means taking consistent wins on horses at long odds.
Longer Odds Are Even Better
Some bettors like to supercharge the best horse betting strategy by only betting horses at odds of 6-1 or more. This is an even better scenario for you. You only need to be right a little over once in six tries to break even. Surely you could pick one winner out of six tries.
We should state clearly that picking winners at longer odds is more difficult. That is a point we cannot argue. It takes more handicapping skills to find these long shots and bet them properly. On each race card there are many long shots waiting to be found. Horses at odds of 6-1 or more win all the time. You just have to learn to recognize them.
The higher the odds go the less likely it is that a horse will win. This is true. The betting public is actually pretty smart when you think about it. They make long odds on horses for a reason. Most of the horses at very long odds deserve those odds. They simply do not have a chance to win.
Every so often, though, magic happens. You are able to see something about a horse than everyone else at the race track has missed. When this happens you will have a golden opportunity to win a large sum of money. If you feel strongly about a horse and its odds are 10-1, make the bet. Never let someone talk you off of a horse that you think has a good chance.
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